With many synchronous solutions, the decline in exports has increasingly narrowed in the second half of 2023, and the trade balance continues to maintain a surplus. These are also optimistic signs for 2024. Although the forecast is difficult, the baptism by fire in past year is expected to create a foundation for exports to make a breakthrough.

Pressure on every pulse of the market

In recent years, despite having to overcome market barriers, including the “shock” of the Covid-19 pandemic, exports reached an impressive target with a 2021 figure of US $336.3 billion, an increase 19% compared to the previous year; in 2022 it will reach US $371.3 billion, an increase of about 10.5% compared to 2021. However, in 2023, pressure on Vietnam’s import and export activities has come from all three channels: international trade channel when many economies that are major partners of Vietnam have decreased growth, reducing aggregate demand, affecting exports; international investment channel when world interest rates increase, causing capital flows flows abroad, creating a decrease in the value of registered foreign direct investment capital; monetary financial channels create devaluation pressure on the Vietnamese currency, causing the import of raw materials to serve production increased and increased the payment scale of foreign debt.

In the first month of 2023, and in the following months, exports continue to face many difficulties as turnover decreases...

Textile and garment is one of our country’s key export industries, bringing in US $44 billion in 2022, growing 8.8% compared to the previous year, but entering 2023, this is one of the ones suffering the crisis. “storm” decline.

Looking back at the export picture of the textile and garment industry in 2023, Mr. Truong Van Cam, Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS), assessed that there has never been a year when the textile and garment industry has suffered such a decline this year. “It is expected that export turnover in 2023 will reach about US $40 billion, compared to 2022, down to US $ 4 billion”. Mr. Truong Van Cam analyzed that one of the main reasons is that the political conflict in the world has escalated and spread, affecting many of our country’s major textile and garment importing economies, making purchasing power significant decrease. In particular, the United States is Vietnam’s largest garment export market, in the first 10 months of 2023, it will decrease by 19.3% compared to 2022, this is the market accounting for 40% of the industry’s export turnover.

Not only textiles and garments, seafood is one of the export industries that has struggled in the past year. After achieving an impressive increase and reaching the US $ tens of billions mark for the first time last year, seafood exports in 2023 have not been able to repeat this result. The panorama of Vietnam’s seafood exports is covered in dark colors when export turnover continuously decreases due to consumption demand in main markets in a “slumping” state, although the last months of the year tend to recovery, but it is estimated that seafood export turnover in 2023 will be lower than the set target (US $10 billion), the export value of the whole year 2023 is estimated to reach about US $9.2 billion.

Many other key industries also cannot maintain the growth momentum as in previous years. For example, exports of processed industrial goods act as a driving force for export growth, but statistics show that in 11 months, the total export turnover of processed industrial goods decreased by 7% compared to the same period last year. In the 2022 period, it is estimated to reach nearly US $274 billion. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the main reason is that the export turnover of most key export items in this group decreased compared to the same period last year, including five out of seven items with high turnover. Exports of over US $10 billion in the group of processed industrial goods decreased over the same period, including: phones of all types and components reached US $48.83 billion, down 11%; Other machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts reached US $39.4 billion, down 6.2%; textiles reached US $30.27 billion, down 12.7%; footwear of all kinds reached US $18.2 billion, down 17.2%; Wood and wood products reached US $12.1 billion, down 17.6%. Only two items out of senven items with an export turnover of over US $10 billion had an increase in export turnover: computers, electronic products and components.

​ Rising from hardship

Throughout 2023, difficulties in the export situation in many industries have been clearly seen, but there are still industries that have risen to become a pillar for exports; Many new paths have been opened, exports are no longer confined to traditional markets.

The bright spot in exports in 2023 must be the agricultural products, rice, and fruit groups that have taken advantage of market opening opportunities and rising prices to boost exports. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, this is also the only product group to record growth in 11 months of 2023, up 4.6% over the same period last year.

According to the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, the total export turnover of fruits and vegetables in 11 months of 2023 is estimated to reach US $5.2 billion, an increase of more than 70% compared to the same period in 2022. With this result, fruit and vegetable exports will reach their destination sooner compared to the set target and it is also the first time vegetables and fruits lead the agricultural industry, surpassing key groups such as rice, cashew nuts, and coffee to set a new record in 2023.

Similarly, rice is also a commodity industry that continuously sets new records, when in 11 months of 2023, export turnover has exceeded more than US $4 billion. This is the highest level after 34 years of our country returning to the world rice export market.

Assessing the export picture of agriculture, forestry and fishery products in 2023, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Phung Duc Tien said that by the end of November, exports of the entire agriculture, forestry and fishery sector reached VND 47.84 billion, down 2.7% over the same period last year. However, in November 2023, agricultural, forestry and fishery export turnover reached 4.8 billion USD, an increase of 13% compared to November 2022. Industry trade surplus reached US $10.55 billion, up 33.7% over the same period last year.

By November 2023, the agricultural industry had 6 products with an export value of over US $3 billion, including: coffee, rice, vegetables, cashew nuts, shrimp, wood and wooden products. In 2023, agricultural, forestry and fishery exports will have strong differentiation between industry groups and products. Among them, the biggest bright spot is that the export of rice and vegetables has continuously skyrocketed for many months, in addition to a number of key export industries falling sharply. It can be affirmed that rice and vegetables are the two “trump cards” of the agricultural industry in 2023.

Resilience to difficulties is also clearly shown in the gradually narrowing margin of export decline, from a decrease of 12% in the first half of 2023 to 5.9% in 11 months of 2023. Ministry of Industry and Trade Assessing that exports have done well in diversifying markets, while exports to major markets have decreased (such as the US, EU, Korea, Japan), but exports to African countries, Eastern Europe, Northern Europe and Western Asia increased. The decrease in exports in some key markets gradually narrowed compared to the first half of the year. For example, the decline in exports to the United States narrowed from 22.6% in the first half of 2023 to 13.1%; to the EU narrowed from 10.1% to 8.1%; to Korea narrowed from 10.2% to 4%...). It is notable that the decrease in exports of the domestic economic sector (down 2.2%) is much lower than the decrease in exports of the foreign invested sector (including crude oil, down 7.1%). %), showing the efforts of the domestic economic sector to maintain and expand export markets in the context of many difficulties in the global economy.

For the whole year 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that export turnover is estimated to reach US $354.5 billion USD. The decline in exports narrows from a decline of 12% in the first half of 2023 to about 4.6% for the whole of 2023.

Looking back at the development of the export situation in 2023 shows solutions to overcome difficulties of the Government, ministries and branches to support domestic production, promote trade, and expand markets; Along with the business community’s proactive and proactive adaptation to the situation, it has brought positive export results for the whole year.

The experiences of “overcoming the wave” to try to narrow the decline will create momentum for Vietnam’s export activities to recover and achieve higher goals in 2024.

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