Việt Nam’s pepper output of the 2022-2023 crop has all been exported, so the amount of pepper inventory for 2024 will be the lowest level in recent years, according to Việt Nam Pepper Association.

Việt Nam’s pepper export volume in 2023 is expected to reach 250,000 tonnes, including volume from import and inventory from the previous year.

Hoàng Thị Liên, chairwoman of the Việt Nam Pepper Association, said that despite difficult market conditions, the industry has achieved good export performance in the first 10 months of this year.

In the last months of the year, the exports could depend on the amount of inventory carried over from previous years.

The association forecasts that global pepper output in the 2023-2024 crop is estimated to decrease because output from pepper-producing countries is estimated to decrease.

However, the reduction in volume is still lower than the decrease in global consumption demand, so it is forecast that pepper price is unlikely to increase continuously in the long term, according to the association.

The domestic businesses also estimate that Việt Nam’s output in the 2023-2024 pepper crop will decrease by about 10-15 per cent to 160,000-165,000 tonnes.

Excluding China, the upcoming consumption demand of countries around the world may decline due to the impact of the economic crisis resulting from the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts. The world economic recession decreases purchasing power in the future.

Besides that, consumption of major markets, including the US and EU - key export markets of Việt Nam, are unlikely to recover in the short term.

Analysts estimate that next year’s output is expected to decrease in India by 20 per cent, Indonesia by 20-30 per cent, Việt Nam by 15 per cent, and Brazil by 15 per cent.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Import-Export Department, forecasts that Việt Nam’s pepper exports will remain at a low level because the domestic supply is no longer abundant and consumption demand in the US and EU markets has not really improved.

At present, the amount of exported pepper originating from Việt Nam has run out. The total amount of inventory and import is about 80,000 tonnes, including the inventory of about 30,000 tonnes.

In the last months of this year, the enterprises will export the imported and pre-existing inventory pepper with a volume of about 50,000 tonnes.

In the long term, Việt Nam’s pepper supply is forecast to be in short supply due to fierce competition from other crops such as durian and passion fruit, according to the association.

Liên said that if the cutting of pepper trees for growing fruit trees is prolonged, Việt Nam may face a pepper supply shortage in three years. That may cause farmers to miss out on trading at high prices.

Exports in 10 months

China was Việt Nam’s largest pepper export market with a volume of 57,723 tonnes in the first 10 months of 2023, accounting for 25.8 per cent of the total export, according to preliminary statistics of the Việt Nam Pepper Association.

The volume rose by 265.3 per cent over the same period of last year.

However, China’s import volume in recent months tended to decrease after purchasing enough pepper volume in the first two quarters of the year.

The US was Việt Nam’s second largest pepper export market with 42,600 tonnes, accounting for 19.1 per cent of the total and declining by 6.3 per cent over the same period.

Meanwhile, Europe occupied 19 per cent of the total exports, decreasing by 4.8 per cent over the same period.

The pepper exports also declined by 8.5 per cent to 10,538 tonnes to India, and 29.8 per cent to 10,025 tonnes to UAE market over the same period.

However, the two markets of Turkey and France recorded a sharp increase in pepper exports of 69.7 per cent and 31.1 per cent, reaching 3,900 tonnes and 3,097 tonnes, respectively.

Other markets had high growth in pepper exports included the African market (up 9.9 per cent), Egypt (30.1 per cent), South Africa (10.5 per cent) and Senegal (35.6 per cent).

The association reported that in October 2023, Việt Nam exported 19,193 tonnes of pepper, earning $72.7 million. The figures rose by 15.4 per cent in volume and 17.3 per cent in value.

The average export price in October 2023 reached $3,664 per tonne of black pepper, and $5,211 per tonne of white pepper.

In the first 10 months, Việt Nam exported 223,578 tonnes of pepper, including 200,571 tonnes of black pepper and 23,007 tonnes of white pepper.

Total export turnover reached $750.8 million, including $640.2 million of black pepper and $110.6 million of white pepper.

Việt Nam gained an increase of 14.6 per cent in volume but a reduction of 11.7 per cent in value compared to the same period last year.

The average export price in the 10 months of 2023 reached $3,553 per tonne of black pepper, and $5,082 per tonne of white pepper. They declined by 17.6 per cent for black pepper and 15.6 per cent for white pepper compared to the same period last year.

Nedspice was the largest pepper export enterprise in 10 months with a volume of 15,462 tonnes, an increase of 8.5 per cent over the same period in 2022.

Some other leading export enterprises under the Việt Nam Pepper Association, included Olam Việt Nam (15,326 tonnes); Pearl (14,144 tonnes); Phúc Sinh (12,720 tonnes) and Haprosimex JSC (9,015 tonnes).

Viet Nam News