The MAE estimates that the country’s total rice cultivation area in 2026 will reach about 7.09 million hectares, down 36,000ha from the previous year.

Average yield is projected at 6.14 tonnes per hectare, up 0.03 tonnes on-year. As a result, total paddy output is forecast at 43.55 million tonnes, an increase of 12,000 tonnes compared with 2025.

Rice for export will continue to be concentrated mainly in the Mekong Delta, while production in other regions is largely earmarked for domestic consumption.

Total paddy output in the Mekong Delta and part of Tay Ninh province (formerly Long An) is estimated at 24.34 million tonnes from 3.84 million ha. Of this, around 8.9 million tonnes will be used for domestic consumption in the Mekong Delta and Ho Chi Minh City, as well as for seed and animal feed.

This leaves an estimated 15.46 million tonnes of marketable paddy, equivalent to about 7.73 million tonnes of export-grade rice.

The export structure is expected to comprise approximately 5.8 million tonnes of high-quality and fragrant rice, accounting for 75 per cent of the total, 773,000 tonnes of glutinous rice, or around 10 per cent, and nearly 1.16 million tonnes of rice for processing, representing about 15 per cent.

Rice exports in the first half of 2026 are estimated at 4.01 million tonnes, while shipments in the second half are projected at around 3.72 million tonnes.

Based on these projections, the MAE has proposed that the Ministry of Industry and Trade focus on boosting rice exports during peak harvest months.

It also stressed the need to maintain minimum circulation reserves in line with regulations and to strengthen inventory reporting to support monitoring and early warning mechanisms.

In addition, the authorities called for enhanced trade promotion, diversification of export markets and product segments, and greater use of digital transformation in developing management scenarios for rice exports and imports, in line with global and domestic market developments.

Source: VIR