Coffee exports this year are forecast to remain positive and are likely to reach a turnover of US$4 billion.

However, according to statistics from the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV), at the end of the trading week of October 2 - 8, the market still paid a lot of attention to coffee prices, as this commodity continued to weaken.

In particular, the price of Robusta coffee dropped by 4.18% and Arabica price decreased slightly, with 0.07% compared to the reference.

Brazil’s promotion of exports along with Vietnam’s harvest of new crops is causing pressure on prices.

Farmers in Vietnam have begun harvesting early ripe coffee for the 2023-2024 crop year. This can help increase supply for export activities in the near future.

This year’s coffee output is estimated to decrease by 10-15% due to unfavorable weather. However, coffee exports from now until the end of the year are still showing positive signs as demand is higher than supply.

Although high turnover is a good result for the coffee industry, MXV analyzes and looks back at export activities over the past two years, the ability to maintain high export value in the long term is something uncertain.

Because it can be seen that the main factor helping coffee export turnover in 2023 exceed US$4 billion is thanks to rising prices in the context of supply shortage.

Earlier in 2022, for the first time, Vietnam earned more than US$4 billion from coffee export activities thanks to the third highest amount of coffee exported in 10 years, with 1.78 million tons.

Because of boosting the amount of coffee exported in 2022, export reserves for 2023 are low, in addition to a 10-15% decrease in output in the 2022- 023 crop year.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the amount of coffee exported in 2023 will reach roughly 1.72 million tons, fetching US$4.2 billion.

Viet Nam Net