Cumulatively, the total export value in the first seven months of the year reached nearly 227 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%. Compared to the 196.1 billion USD result from the same period last year, exports in the first seven months of this year increased by an additional 30.88 billion USD. Notably, 30 commodities achieved an export value of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 91.9% of total export value, with 9 exceeding 5 billion USD, accounting for 70.8%.

Significant growth in major markets

According to Vice Chairman and General Secretary of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association (Viforest) Ngo Sy Hoai, as one of the billion-dollar export sectors, the wood industry has shown a commendable recovery over the past six months, with export value reaching 7.8 billion USD, an increase of over 21% compared to the same period last year. Major markets, such as the US, Japan, the European Union (EU), and the Republic of Korea (RoK), have all experienced significant growth. He is optimistic that purchasing power will increase, with improvements in the global economy and markets in the latter half of the year, particularly in the US, where many expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates from September, leading to increased consumer demand. It is also expected that wood exports will continue to rise, potentially surpassing 16 billion USD for the year.

Similarly, the General Secretary of the Vietnam Leather, Footwear, and Handbag Association Phan Thi Thanh Xuan, said that in the first six months of the year, Vietnam's leather and footwear export value reached over 6.5 billion USD, an increase of 5.7% compared to the same period in 2023. The US accounts for the largest share at around 35%, followed by the EU, Japan, and the RoK. With growing export value,China currently holds a 9% share, making it a key market for the leather and footwear industry's export growth in 2024. With these positive signals, the industry is projected to reach 26-27 billion USD in 2024.

Vietnam's textile and garment industry is also experiencing a resurgence as inflation in major markets like the US and Europe has been under control, boosting consumer purchasing power. Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (Vitas) Truong Van Cam, reported that brand inventory levels decreased in 2023, and some textile companies are now seeking smaller firms to outsource orders through Vitas. The orders have stabilised, with some companies securing orders until October and November 2024. Domestic manufacturers anticipate stronger growth towards the end of the year, aiming for 44 billion USD in exports.

According to the General Department of Customs, exports in the latter half of the year typically exceed or at least match the value of the first half. For instance, in the first half of 2023, export value was 164.68 billion USD, 25.32 billion USD less than the second half. In 2022, when Vietnam reached a record export value of 371.3 billion USD, the first and second halves of the year were relatively balanced. Therefore, if the positive results from the second half of 2024 are maintained, the country’s total export value could reach a new record of 380 billion USD, or even exceed this figure.

Proactively grasping information

At the trade promotion conference with the Vietnam Trade Office system abroad, organised by the Ministry of Industry and Trade in July 2024, Do Ngoc Hung, Commercial Counselor at the Vietnam Trade Office in the US, stated that the US will continue to be Vietnam’s largest export market in the last six months of the year. For the third consecutive year, total export turnover is expected to exceed 100 billion USD, surpassing the target set at the beginning of the year. However, with the growth in trade between the two countries, the US market currently presents many barriers for Vietnamese exporters, particularly in the form of trade defence measures through anti-dumping, countervailing duty investigations, and avoidance of trade defence measures, as well as transhipment of goods. As of June, the US has initiated the most trade defence investigations against Vietnamese exports, with 11 cases.

Nguyen Phu Hoa, Commercial Counselor at the Vietnam Trade Office in Australia, noted that Vietnamese-manufactured products, such as phones, computers, washing machines, dryers, and refrigerators are very popular and can easily be found in major electronics retail chains in this market. However, Vietnamese goods also face competition from strong manufacturing and processing rivals like China, Taiwan (China), and Japan. It’s worth noting that Australia has 11 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) in effect with 20 partners, and nine other FTAs are either under negotiation or awaiting ratification with 14 new partners, including the EU. These FTAs offer significant benefits to Australia’s other partners.

Moreover, the Australian market has very stringent regulations and technical barriers, with some standards even higher than those of the US and EU, as Australian consumers focus on the product’s quality. Products are increasingly evaluated based on the emerging trend criterion of "value for money", rather than price alone. “To develop in the Australian market, Vietnamese exporters must prioritise products’ quality above all. Additionally, they should regularly and proactively stay informed about market trends and new policies from relevant authorities concerning export products”, Hoa recommended.

Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hoang Long commented that in the final months of 2024, the international and domestic context offers some favourable conditions but production and trade development still face numerous difficulties and challenges. Notably, key export items to major markets, such as the EU and the US, continue to face pressures from trade defence investigations and technical barriers related to the environment, sustainable development, and green transition. Meanwhile, exporters continue to struggle with expanding and diversifying markets, due to high input material costs and compliance expenses, especially with new regulations and standards.

Therefore, the Deputy Minister suggested that associations strengthen their coordination with units under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, relevant ministries and agencies, and the Vietnam Trade Office system abroad, to promptly grasp and update information on market prices and new regulations and policies of host countries. The Vietnam Trade Offices abroad need to enhance their monitoring and regularly update information related to market developments, market information, trade policies, export standards, and policies for each key product.

Source: Nhandan News