Durian exports have recorded strong growth since early 2026. Export value reached US$117 million in January, up 275% year on year. By March, shipments to China alone totalled US$135 million, up nearly 400%. However, this growth still largely revolves around a single key market.

Although Vietnamese durians are exported to multiple countries, the market structure shows a clear imbalance. According to Vietnam Customs, export turnover exceeded US$2.2 billion in 2023, with about 90-95% going to China. This pattern continued in 2024 and 2025, with China remaining the main driver of the sector’s growth.

Meanwhile, several other markets recorded notable growth, including the Republic of Korea (303%), Papua New Guinea (266%), the United States (243%), Australia (68%), Canada (34%) and Japan (31%). However, given their low base, these increases have yet to greatly change the export structure.

This indicates a paradox: growth is strong, but dependence persists. In the short term, focusing on a large market helps secure stable demand and rapid growth. Over the longer term, however, a “single-market dominance” structure leaves the entire value chain vulnerable to policy changes by the importing partner. Any shift in import regulations or technical standards can quickly affect exporters and growers.

For China, the key market, durian import requirements have moved beyond basic market access, forming a strict system of compliance, transparency and risk control. Pressure lies not only in prices or volumes but also in ensuring each shipment meets increasingly stringent technical, quarantine and food safety requirements.

Specifically, growing areas must be registered and assigned codes; packing facilities must obtain GACC codes; exporters must be on an approved list; and each shipment must carry a phytosanitary certificate. In addition, limits on pesticide residues, microorganisms and heavy metals, particularly cadmium, are tightly controlled. Non-compliant shipments may be flagged, treated, returned or destroyed, and may even lead to export suspension for the violating entity. Technical requirements thus become both financial and reputational risks.

To meet rising standards, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment issued Decision 3015 dated August 4, 2025, on food safety control procedures for fresh durian exports. The process establishes a closed control chain, from registration and inspection to certification for each shipment, while tightening requirements on traceability, growing area codes and packing facilities. This increases costs and risks from production and harvesting to transport.

Vietnam’s durian exports are on a strong growth trajectory, but heavy reliance on the Chinese market remains a bottleneck. At the same time, increasingly stringent technical standards, from growing area codes and traceability to residue and quality controls, turn each shipment into a test of risk management capacity, highlighting both dependence and the sector’s vulnerability amid deeper integration and competition.

From early 2026, durian exports recorded a strong surge. In January 2026 alone, export value reached US$ 117 million, up 275% year-on-year. By March 2026, momentum accelerated further, with exports to China alone hitting US$ 135 million, an increase of nearly 400%. However, this growth remains heavily anchored to a single dominant market.

Source: VOV